The most critical question is how can restaurant forecast demand. The most commonly conventional method is by using some calculations in an Excel spreadsheet.
Regards to the output, most restaurants would either manually eater data into a spreadsheet based on historical sales and inventory levels or they might export some information into Excel and then create a series of formulas linking to the worksheet and perhaps a few statistical charts to help them predict their upcoming inventory requirements.
This method can work and usually does in the short term in volumes are low. However, it is also an extremely manual process which usually requires constant attention to details and it can have a tendency to break down if its formulas change and cell reference relates break. What's more, the spreadsheet usually only accommodates single forecasting method which does not allow your reference past performance based on many forecasting methods compared to actual sales for historical periods.
Forecasting elements
1. Occupancy Statistics
Number of turns= Number of customers/ number of seats
2. Average check= Sales of Food and Beverage / Number of customers
Forecasting Methods
Moving Average
The moving averages method of forecasting is especially useful for businesses wanting to make predictions in industries that are rapidly changing. Instead of looking at the average in a set period, the moving average looks at interval of time of which “moves” each week or month. A common approach of using this method is by taking the average of the previous three weeks to forecast the upcoming week. It can also be done for monthly or quarterly as well.
1. Itemize all of your businesses' food and beverage sales data by total annual sales and per month total sales. For instance, if your food products include wraps, soups, fruits, and vegetables and your beverage products include coffee, water, tea, and soft drinks you will want to show the total sales for each of these products individually as well as the grand sum total of all sales for each month and for the entire year. Use this information to calculate the percentage of total annual sales that each month contributes to total sales for the year.
2. Calculate the monthly food and beverage sales forecast based on historical sales data. To calculate the monthly forecast, take the prior month's total food and beverage sales data and divide by that month's average percentage of total annual sales and than multiply this product by the upcoming month's average percentage of total annual sales. For example, if you wanted to forecast December's food and beverage sales, which averages 12 percent of total sales per year, you would need to know November's total sales--$100,000, and the average percentage of total sales for November--8 percent. Proceed to divide 100,000 by 8 percent to arrive at $1,250,000 million, which you will than multiply by 12 to arrive at December's food and sales forecast of $150,000. The equation would be: [100,000 / .08] X .12 = 150,000.
3. Calculate the annual food and beverage sales forecast based on historical sales data. To calculate the annual food and beverage sales forecast identify last year's total sales and add to it any predetermined food and beverage sales expected to be received in the upcoming year. Multiply the sum of these two sales figures by one plus the historical average growth rate of annual food and beverage sales data for your business. For example, if last year's total sales were $100 million and your business anticipated additional food and beverage sales of $200,000 from contractual agreements that were entered into but not yet fulfilled and your annual sales average growth rate was 6 percent, you would add 1 million to 200,000 and multiply by 1.06 to arrive at $1,272,000 million in food and beverage sales forecast for the upcoming year. The equation would be: 1,200,000 X 1.06 = 1,272,000.
Food cost control process
(1) Menu PlanningA well-planned menu should offer sufficient and a wide variety of choices at the right price with neat style and format which allows customer easy reading. Also, items in the menu should promote restaurants' strengths of your kitchen staff and selling points which are superior and well differentiated from its competitors while at the same time try hiding its weaknesses and limitations.
(2) ForecastingForecasting application helps estimate and predict the desirable level of production and available sales volume based on restaurants' historical data and environmental factors.
(3) PurchasingProcurement of the raw materials and ingredients that restaurants need to serve the customers involved in this section. It is essential for purchasing personnel to communication and interact with the chef. Afterwards, purchasing staff will take all considerations and concerns into account and make decision on how much to order and when to place order. In addition, a list of all food items, including product specifications, preferred vendors and pricing history should be written. Also the par stock, purchase reorder point are needed to know in this section. Once you determine your specifications it’s time to compare and negotiate with suppliers.Your purchasing system will also require that a “Par” or “Build To” system with an actual inventory used to control the amount of food purchased. Purchasing is vital and must be done by management or a senior level staff member. Improper purchasing can cause serious issues from product shortages to excessive waste.
(4) Receiving
It is to confirm and make sure that the quantity, intended quality, price and suppliers are exactly as ordered.Time and date delivery is also to be made.It’s critical when deliveries arrive that a manager or senior level staff member check the deliver for accuracy. Each case must be counted and spot checked for proper weight and quality. Believe me when I say the suppliers know whose checking and who’s not. If you do not check consistently you will undoubtedly receive inferior quality or shortages on occasion.
(5) StoringAreas for storing dry foods should be well ventilated and pest-free with sufficient space and light or even air-conditioning. Storage facilities like refrigerators and freezers should be checked regularly in order to keep track of the performance of temperatures and cleanliness. Moreover, it is vital to keep those storage areas clean and neat. Also, storage areas should also be monitored and checked with CCTV or staff in order to enhance security while minimizing lost and theft.
(6) IssuingThe products are taken from the storage area to kitchen for cooking.
(7) ProductionThe food is cooked for the ingredients. In this section, cleanliness is important. So the hands of person who handle the food should be clean. The production process requires the use of a system to track what has been ordered and delivered. In most restaurants that will be a POS system. If no POS system is used an order pad will be used. Each order pad must be accounted for and allocated to your food servers. Missing order copies are clear indication of theft. Another key to control and tracking of expenses is to document remakes, waste, promotions, employee food and other items that are not served to the customer. These can add up to a significant expense if not controlled. Following recipes and the use of portioning tools such as scoops and scales will also help deliver consistency for the customer and control costs.
(8) ServiceThe cooked food is delivered to customers for service.
(9) SalesThe sales generated for food sold.
Food Cost AnalysisFixed costs and variable costs are determined. Fixed cost is constant no matter how much food is produced. Variable costs is varied base on the volume of business. After collect the sales and cost, balance sheet and income statement are made in order to reflect the assets and liabilities relate to owners’ equity and see the sales budgeted.A physical inventory count weekly or monthly is needed to determine actual food used during the timeframe. In many cases you may decide to count expensive items daily or even by shift. Whatever your frequency of inventory it’s absolutely critical to take an accurate inventory to produce the cost of sales numbers that are derived from it.Accounting & ReportsThe previous steps will go for naught if you are not producing food cost restaurant financial reports. The processes above with a proper accounting process will generate the reports needed to determine if expenses are in line, and if they are not where to look to fix the problem.Small amounts of waste and or theft on a daily basis add up to significant dollars over time. That’s why it’s critical to have a system in place for management to execute.
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